The following is an excerpt from the March 16 Jerusalem Issue Brief published by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and written by Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman. Dr. Lerman is the Director of the American Jewish Committee's Israel/Middle East office. This article can be found in its entirety on the Web by clicking here.

The Israeli Withdrawal from Lebanon
To appreciate the situation Israel is in today, we must look back to the May 2000 withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon...There was some hope at the time...that once Israel withdrew from Lebanon, Hizballah would turn into a new, somewhat tougher but manageable version of Amal, an older, established Shiite political party representing the most down-trodden but largest of all Lebanese population groups. It was hoped that...Hizballah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah would follow in the footsteps of Nabih Berri and the Amal leadership, and merge into the Lebanese political landscape. Clearly, Hizballah made one essential step in that direction by becoming an active political party. They are the largest single bloc in the Lebanese parliament...On the other hand, they have chosen to stay out of the government.

Hizballah has definitely not become a second version of Amal and has retained the key features of a terrorist organization. In this respect, Hizballah remains the terror group most wedded to the totalitarian promise of Islamic revolution in the Middle East in its purist form.

Hizballah: An Iranian Proxy
In this, Hizballah effectively serves as a proxy for the Iranian revolutionary regime... who follow the line set by the Imam, Ayatollah Khomeini. The rule of the Imam is a revolutionary recasting of Islamist ideology...It is Shiite only in the sense that it does borrow elements of the Shiite tradition, but these elements are embedded in a totalitarian political system. This is not Shiite tradition; this is not Iranian tradition; these are modern revolutionary concepts...translated into a bearded and black-clad version of the same revolutionary traditions that 20 years earlier carried a Kalashnikov in the name of Marx.

It is Hizballah that is perhaps the purist representative of "Khatt al-Imam" (the line of the Imam, in Arabic), while Iran itself has changed beyond comprehension and is torn by internal disagreements. Hizballah sees itself as the only successful one, from its point of view. This has made their revolutionary commitment of crucial importance to them, and Nasrallah is definitely not going to trade away Hizballah's self-image as the one successful revolutionary movement that drove the Zionists out without an agreement -- that beat Israel.

We must put aside the fact that...the real consideration that drove Prime Ministers Barak and Netanyahu to...leave Lebanon was a desire to disengage from the periodic casualties in Lebanon that were being used by the Syrians as a tool to pressure Israel.
 
Regardless of what Israel thought it was doing, what was important to Hizballah is what it thought it had achieved and the spin it has been able to put on the story in the media...

A Model for the Palestinians' Armed Struggle
The ability of Hizballah to tell its story -- that it is the only revolutionary organization that has managed to do what no Arab Sunni regime has been able to do -- has become tremendously important to the organization's self-image. This self-image, moreover, has had a profound impact on the current conflict...The spin that Hizballah...put on Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon...has had a direct impact on the minds of the Palestinian leadership...They decided not just to launch a new "intifada," but to militarize it...That decision was directly colored by the message of Hizballah.
 
The position of Hizballah is certainly not just confined to removing Israel from southern Lebanon. The Iranians and the Syrians have forced on the Lebanese the fiction of "Shib'ah Farms" so that Hizballah will have an excuse to keep fighting, even though Israel's total withdrawal from Lebanon was confirmed by the UN. It is enough to look at a Lebanese 2000 lira note to see that the borders of Lebanon are drawn where Israel and the UN say they are rather than where Hizballah says they are. It is not...about southern Lebanon or "Shib'ah Farms"; it is about Israel's existence.

Nasrallah said in 1998: "We will never, never agree to live side-by-side with the filthy bacterial growth Israel, the cancerous entity that expands wherever there is a Talmudic remnant." When they talk about liberating Jerusalem, they mean it; they mean the whole of Israel.

These are positions colored by the line of...the Khomeini camp...All of the projections about Hizballah modifying itself or becoming an element Israel can negotiate with were based on...fantasy. Israel can negotiate with Hizballah only on the exchange of prisoners and bodies, because that is a manipulative element that Hizballah uses to remind the Israeli people of its presence and capabilities. At the same time, Hizballah proves that it can manipulate Israel better than any other player in the region...

The Threat to Northern Israel
Hizballah currently has a very large capability to do harm throughout northern Israel, with hundreds of Grad missiles, and 107-mm rockets that can be...launched from everywhere. It also has dozens of short-range missiles like the "Fajar 3" and "Fajar 5," and longer-range rockets of Iranian make, some that can reach 40-70 km. 
 
...Syria has begun to provide Hizballah with...rockets that can reach all of northern Israel. Interestingly, this Syrian enterprise started only after Israel asked the Turkish government to prohibit the Iranians from using Turkish airspace to fly supplies to Hizballah via Damascus. The Turks agreed, had a couple of Iranian planes land for inspection and the traditional supply route to Hizballah was closed.

"Hong Kong" vs. "Hanoi"
Three months after Israel was "driven out" of southern Lebanon there were elections in Lebanon, won by the current prime minister, Rafiq al-Hariri, and his allies, the Druze. Hariri hopes to put an end to Hizballah activity because it threatens the prospects for reviving the Lebanese economy. Harari's message: Lebanon cannot be both Hong Kong (Lebanon carries on its shoulders the ability of Syria to survive economically) and Hanoi (adventurous revolutionary state).
 
Nasrallah is acutely aware of the will of the majority of Lebanese and has had to tread carefully...in order not to overstay his welcome. At Syria's instructions, Lebanon has allowed Hizballah free rein in the areas from which Israel withdrew in 2000. There is no real governmental authority...in these areas, which have become "Hizballah-land."
 
Nevertheless, Hizballah is acutely aware that this sufferance is tenuous. If it actually crosses a certain line and provokes a massive Israeli reaction that will disrupt and destroy everything that Hariri has been trying to build in Lebanon over the last few years, Hizballah might suffer the consequences from within the Lebanese system.

Aiding Palestinian Terrorism
Hizballah, and the Iranians who back them, have...reduced the level of direct activity across the border because they have turned much of their energy toward the manipulation of terrorist activity within the Palestinian areas and Israel. Essentially, the Iranian establishment is more focused on supporting terrorist organizations in the Palestinian arena, with Hizballah as backers and suppliers of arms and technology. The major conduit they use is Islamic Jihad, which is directly responsive to Iranian directives. The infusion of Iranian money, support, and technology accounts for the tremendous rise in the effectiveness of Islamic Jihad operations...Hizballah has also infiltrated the Palestinian Authority itself. The use of mortars in Gaza was begun by PA officers working under the influence and direction of Hizballah.

The "A-Team" of Terrorism
Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage has said of Hizballah that if al-Qaeda is the "B-Team" of terrorism, Hizballah is the "A-Team." Hassan Nassralah was in the business of killing and maiming Americans when bin Laden was still taking CIA money to kill Russians in Afghanistan. Hizballah, with fundraising operations in the U.S., Canada and Australia, helped carry out two attacks in Argentina and certainly qualifies as a terrorist organization with global reach.

Prospects for Change in a Post-Saddam Middle East
What is needed to stop Hizballah? First, Syrian attitudes will need to change. With Syria surrounded by Turkey, a new Iraq, Jordan with its current strategic orientation, Israel, and a restive population in Lebanon, Syria's calculus could change very quickly. There are...people in Iran who are hoping that change in Iraq will also facilitate a transformation of Iran. These are the same people who have shouted in the streets, "Why do we have to bother with Palestine? We have problems of our own."

Should these changes occur, Hizballah will have to reconsider its arrogance. Until then, however, it remains a very serious risk. Israel must maintain a firm deterrent posture vis-à-vis Lebanese society, on the one hand, and the Syrians, on the other, in conjunction with a firm American message to Iran as to how it should act if it does not want to be next in line.