Update- Operation Cast Lead and Elections 2009

MARCH 9, 2009

Dear Reader,

Since the beginning of this year we have sent targeted updates about the Israeli operation in Gaza, as well as reports and summaries of the national elections held here on February 10.

Given significant developments in both these areas, we thought that a further bulletin would be helpful.

Unfortunately, the situation in the south continues to be problematic with more rocket attacks and increased violence. At the same time, despite much talk of an imminent deal, our kidnapped solider Gilad Schalit is still in captivity. In fact, as of yesterday, Gilad’s parents moved into a protest tent outside of the Prime Minister’s residence, a three-minute walk from UJC’s offices in Jerusalem. The Schalits, calling for Gilad’s release and a resolution to this painful episode before PM Olmert leaves office, claim they will live in the tent until they are reunited with Gilad.

On the political front, Prime Minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu is putting together the final pieces for his narrow coalition. He hopes to present a new government to the Knesset within days.

More on both of these fronts follows below.

We will, of course, keep you posted as to all major developments. In the meantime, between the rockets, the politics and some welcome heavy rain, Israelis are also enjoying Purim this week. The streets are filled with fairies, cowboys, clowns, lions, smiling children, proud parents and lots of candy!

Wishing you all a happy Purim, and hoping, as always, for a peaceful and prosperous time for the entire region.

 Rebecca Caspi

Director General, UJC Israel

Senior Vice President, Global Operations 

Elections: Results and Forming a Government

• To recap, once official election results were released, President Shimon Peres met with the leaders of all elected parties to ask them who their first choice is for prime minister.
• The parties reported to Peres as follows (this list includes the numbers of seats won by each delegation):

• In total, 28 MKs recommended Livni, 65 recommended Netanyahu, while the rest did not make any recommendation.
• As a result, President Peres formally asked Netanyahu to form a government, effectively making him Prime Minister-designate.
• In the unlikely event that Netanyahu cannot form a coalition, Peres does have the option of offering another person, presumably Livni.

Coalition Building

• Once handed the mandate from the President, Netanyahu immediately launched into negotiations with potential coalition partners in an attempt to gather at least 61 MKs to form a governing coalition.
• Netanyahu made it clear that his preference was to form a “national unity” government that would include Kadima and/or possibly Labor.
  • However, at this time, both of those parties have indicated that they would prefer to stay in the opposition.
  • Labor leader Barak has himself hinted that he would prefer to enter the coalition, presumably staying on as defense minister, but there is fierce opposition to this within his party.
  • Similarly, Livni’s number 2, Shaul Mofaz, leads a group within Kadima that prefers joining the government. However, Livni herself is opposed, as are most party MKs.
• As a result, the most likely situation now is that Netanyahu will form a narrow, right wing/ religious government comprising 61 seats, or 65 if the National Union joins as well.
• Reports suggest that the Prime Minister-designate will complete the process of allocating portfolios to his coalition partners this week and then distribute the remaining ministries inside his own party, with a goal of presenting his government to President Shimon Peres next Monday.
• Speculation currently centers around the fact that Yisrael Beteinu’s Avigdor Leiberman will be given the Foreign Ministry and other senior ministries.
  • Should this occur, many worry about Israel’s international relations, given the negative image that Lieberman has beyond the country’s borders.
  • Such a move would also greatly upset Netanyahu’s number two, Silvan Shalom, who sees himself in the Foreign Ministry.
• Some suggest that Netanyahu will keep the Finance Ministry for himself, or possibly bring in a professional non-political outsider.

• Cast Lead, the IDF’s military operation in Gaza ended with a unilateral ceasefire by Israel declared on January 18, 2009.
• Since that time, some 70 rockets and 40 mortar shells have been fired into Israel.
• More than 30 rockets have been fired against Israel in the last week and a half alone.
• One Grad rocket hit an empty school in Ashkelon. Since that time, many parents have kept their children home from school in the city, although classes are formally in session.
• In response, Israel has launched repeated air attacks against targets in the Gaza Strip, successfully hitting smuggling tunnels, rocket launch sites, weapons caches and senior terrorist leadership.
• The Hamas leadership praised a bulldozer driver terrorist on Thursday who overturned a police car and rammed into a bus, before he was shot by police and a taxi driver at the scene. He later died of his wounds. A number of Israelis were moderately wounded in the attack.
  • Raw footage of the attack, taken from a traffic camera, can be seen here
• In an ongoing humanitarian effort since the unilateral cease fire was declared, 108,852 tons of aid and 9,620,900 liters of fuel for the Gaza power station have been delivered to the Gaza Strip.

Formal Ceasefire/ Gilad Schalit

• Although Israel does not have any formal contact with Hamas or its leadership in Gaza, intense negotiations have been taking place through intermediaries, mainly the Egyptians.
  • These negotiations are attempting to reach a formal ceasefire arrangement, but no such agreement has yet been reached.
  • One of Hamas’ conditions for a ceasefire is the reopening of crossings between Gaza and Israel, but Israel has thus far refused to agree to this without the Gilad Schalit question being resolved.
• There is much speculation and many rumors that a deal on Gilad Schalit is imminent.
  • Commentators suggest that such a deal would involve Israel releasing 1,000- 1,400 Hamas prisoners.
  • A number of these are likely to be hard-core terrorists who are responsible for serious attacks against Israeli citizens.
  • Gilad Schalit’s parents, Noam and Aviva, arrived Sunday morning at their protest tent opposite the Prime Minister's residence in Jerusalem in the hope that thousands of others will join them. The family said they intend to stay at the tent until Olmert reaches a decision.
  • The Schalit family is putting intense pressure on Prime Minister Olmert to complete a deal before he leaves office - an event that is likely to take place within 1-2 weeks.

Members of the incoming 18^th Knesset

Announcement of cease-fire by PM Ehud Olmert

Statements by Ehud Olmert and Hillary Clinton, 3 Mar. 09

Interview: Former Palestinian PM Salam Faya'd

Two perspectives on an incoming Netanyahu-led government:

• No Nonsense Government - Netanyahu fully understands he must tackle key issues of our time
• The Rule of Fear: Never before has a government been established here solely based on sowing fear

UJC Partner Assistance to the South Since Operation Cast Lead:

·        UJC has provided funds for our main partners, The Jewish Agency for Israel (JAFI) and the American Joint Distribution Committee (JDC) as well as other organizations such as the Israel Trauma Coalition (ITC) to continue their important work in the South in the aftermath of the IDF’s operation.

·        Activities include:

Helping Youth Return to Normalcy: JAFI is building upon the infrastructure of their successful "Youth Futures" project to enable older trustees to provide guidance to youth in danger from regions under fire. The trustees will assist children to overcome the psychological and physical obstacles imposed by the hardships of the crisis.

Utilizing Young Communities for Sothern Revitalization: JAFI is building upon existing "Ayalim" communities of young leaders in the two southern towns of Beer Sheva and Ichini, to assist in rehabilitating and refurbishing infrastructure across the war-ravaged south.

Recreational Activities for New Immigrants: JAFI continues to provide professional counseling and family workshops to new immigrants in absorption centers across the South. These services are provided so that immigrants can acclimate to their new home, despite the difficulties posed by the crisis. 

Consulting for Regional Municipalities: JDC is providing consulting services to approximately ten regional municipalities in managing local needs while dealing with difficulties posed by the post-conflict environs of the South.

Boosting the Regional Economy: JDC provides business consultancy across the South to allow small businesses to survive and prosper under the strenuous conditions of the South.

Trauma Relief for Children: JDC provides trauma relief for children through various therapeutic methods for relaxation and psychological assistance. The programs for trauma relief are implemented within school frameworks in all regional councils in the hardest hit areas surrounding Gaza. These efforts include the Red Color Song Program, the Hibuki Doll Program and Havens of Calm.

Team training and support: The ITC continues to train therapists and psychologists to provide necessary treatment for residents suffering from post-traumatic stress. The service is provided in 15 regional councils and fortifies the psychosocial system necessary to deal with the difficult outcomes of the war.

PHOTOS & VIDEOS

Credits, from top: Motti Buganim, who has lived his entire life in Sderot, stands outside his house on 12/29, which was hit by a Kassam. He and his wife and child took cover in a sheltered room in the house when the rocket hit. Photo courtesy JAFI. Israeli kids huddle in their family bomb shelter in Ashkelon during a 'red alert' as the missile-warning siren sounds on Jan. 1, 2009. Credit: JAFI. Funeral for Netivot's Beber Vaknin, killed by a missile from Gaza.  Photo by AP/Ariel Schalit. An Israeli tank near the Gaza border, as warplanes strike Hamas targets. Photo by Brian Hendler/JTA. An Israeli home in Netivot, damaged by a missile from Gaza on 12/28. Photo courtesy JAFI. Israelis comfort each other after a Palestinian missile hits their house in Tkuma on Dec. 24. Photo by AP/Yehuda Lahiani. Participants at Jan. 7, 2009 Israel Solidarity rally in Washington. Credit: Betty Adler Photography, 2009, for The Jewish Federation of Greater Washington